Identifying leverage points in climate change migration systems through expert mental models

Abstract As the impacts of climate change increase, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change advises that global migration will also increase. A deeper understanding factors and interactions influence decision-making climate-affected populations is needed to more accurately predict estimates adequately inform prepare future receiving cities. In this study, we survey thirty-two experts in field explore how demographic, economic, environmental, political, social interact lead (im)mobility these within sea level rise, drought, flooding, erosion contexts. We use system mapping network analysis determine which should be targeted as leverage points for policy makers their resulting effects each hazard context. Our findings identify physical infrastructure, services, capital, political stability places intervene increase resiliency systems. Using context community consultation, recommend selecting target with direct relationships other highly influential (livelihoods, food security, financial capital) elicit most positive cascading through whole system, leading changes migration. highlight rise complex comparison contexts examined need multi-factored interventions create resilient contribute growing body work seeks better understand between influencing